It's a crapshoot.
Over the past 10 years, I have been closely observing Canadian culture with an even closer look post 2016 after Donald Trump became President stateside and have made some observations that I think are pretty accurate. That thing that divided them has also divided us.
Today, roughly 1/3 Canadian adults are Liberal, 1/3 are Conservative and 1/3 are ‘moderates’ meaning they have no particular affiliation with one side or the other but are still leaning left or right. Moderates are everywhere (all around you) and you know many. They have traditional values; can be more easily swayed/persuaded and are generally tolerant of new trends around vaccines, immigration, religion and gender preference. That said, they can still find fault with one side or the other’s point of view and like hard left or right wing thinkers, tend to follow the thoughts/ideas of their friends & family but prefer not to talk Conservative vs. Liberal at all because once you go down that road, there's no turning back.
When it comes to politics, they're the quiet ones.
Lock her up - Lock him up.
Ok, hardliners are more into punishing those who disagree with them and moderates really aren't into taking it that far at all. Finding an amicable solution is almost always preferred.
I’m guessing there are between 10 - 15 million Canadian moderates who could vote Liberal or Conservative in the next election depending on what’s on the table in the months preceding (could go either way). Right now (late 2023) more than two thirds of Canadians strongly disapprove of Justin Trudeau which means that all Conservatives and almost all moderates want him gone. That said, a larger percentage in the middle could easily still vote Liberal in the next election IF Trudeau stepped down which is why he almost certainly will in 2024. Now it's this ... why would moderates swing back into the Liberal camp after being seduced? Well, maybe it's because Pierre Poilievre is really creepy. Something to be said for good instincts.
Saying that moderate Canadians are gullible is perhaps unfair even though the resentment politics game played by the opposition leader has in fact swayed 90% of them into his fold and would explain their soaring ratings in the polls recently. So - gullible? I’m afraid so. It’s a no brainer amongst Populist politicians that shame & ridicule is successful at harnessing people’s anger and focussing all that rage in a singular direction has proven a useful strategy in getting more support, even from the moderates who can make or break an election campaign (like we saw in November '16).
Quite simply put, blame works.
The reaction vote. Thank God for it.
It worked in America in 2016 so it can work here in 2025. That’s what Poilievre is counting on, placing all his chips on the table on that marker for all the obvious reasons in an all or nothing gesture designed to divide & conquer. It’s easy pickings and the country is his oyster - or is it? Maybe it's a short term gain - long term pain agenda that has a short shelf life, after all - history has shown us that the reaction vote never holds. Moderates remain wary (from experience) and weighing out the options is a honed skill and we are still mid-term.
With Ontario Premier Doug Ford tarnishing the brand in a big way right now and Trudeau inevitably on his way out, can Trump’s evangelical strategy work north of the 49th Parallel 9 years later? Only time will tell. Personally, I’d like to think that Canadians are smarter than that and that our moderates will see through all the red herrings & smoke screens and vote for reason over (so-called) treason; seeing the freedom farce as just that - a distraction.
One thing that is certain to me going forward and a message to Pierre Poilievre. What we've endured since the pandemic & global inflation flattened us has been tragic and NO one person/Prime Minister, political party or ideology could have circumvented it - so DON'T tell me it would all be different if you had been running the show because I'm not buying it.
When it gets right down to it, I don't think most Canadians will either in 2025 when they go to the polls. It's just too easy - a painfully obvious scam (to anyone who actually looks).
In closing, I ask this question. Will people see through the facade and expose Pierre Poilievre for who he really is or will they succumb to the resentment narrative and vote in reaction just like they did in the U.S. in 2016? You don't like Trump or MAGA? Welcome to MAGA light - because we're Canadians and everyone gets a say (except THEM).
Same bowel movement, different toilet.
Until that fateful day when we as a country rise up and reclaim our freedom, Mr. Poilievre hopes you stay stupid because it's in his best interest. Trust me, what you don't know? Won't hurt you ... you can bet yer bitcoin on it.
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